This year that has just begun should be the year of confirmation of several trends related to the electric vehicle market around the world. These are three of the most relevant.
The penetration of the electric vehicle in the global automotive market has not stopped rising for more than five years, reaching record figures in 2022.
And the truth is that the economic and social outlook has not helped, as we have had to face a pandemic and various crises in areas directly related to the automotive industry, such as the economy and energy.
For these and other reasons, 2023 is viewed with caution and uncertainty by many major industry players as well as observers. What path will electric mobility follow this year? Will it consolidate its growth or will it suffer a serious setback that compromises the objectives set?
Electric Car Sales
This is perhaps the key indicator of the health of the plug-in car market. In recent years, China has fueled a sales boom that has resulted in more than 10 million of these types of vehicles being sold by 2022.
This represented an increase of more than 70% compared to 2020 and Bloomberg NEF expects that in 2023 this figure will reach 13.6 million plug-in passenger cars sold, around three quarters of which are zero emissions or 100% electric.
Therefore, the electric vehicle market should continue to trend upwards in 2023, although forecasts speak of a slowdown in growth after two years of significant acceleration.
China, The United States And Europe
In all this, China will be key, since in 2022 it was responsible for almost eight of the little more than 10 million electric vehicles sold. However, the elimination of subsidies for electric cars decreed a few weeks ago will test the ability of the eastern giant to continue with this dominant trend.
Instead, the new US Inflation Reduction Act promises to do just the opposite, putting the American powerhouse auto industry in a more prominent position in 2023.
According to Bloomberg NEF, the United States will sell around 1.6 million plug-in vehicles in 2023. This means that it will still be far behind Europe in adoption, but the gap will begin to narrow as a result of much more sustained growth in the Old Continent.
“There are now 27 million electric vehicles on the roads worldwide, and we should pass 40 million by the end of the year,” the report explains.
“That’s still only around 3% of the global vehicle fleet, but it’s a big jump from less than 1% at the end of 2020 and makes electric vehicles one of the fastest moving components of the global energy transition”, he emphasizes.
Electric Trucks And Vans
The introduction of the electric vehicle in the commercial and industrial sector is being more timid, but the Bloomberg NEF prediction speaks of a spectacular increase in 2023.
According to data from his report, since 2020 sales have multiplied by almost four and in 2022 more than 300,000 electrified units were sold, but this year the prediction speaks of an increase of more than 80% to reach almost 600,000 units worldwide.
This would be a great boost for decarbonisation objectives, since we are talking about vehicles that are used very intensively and that cover enormous amounts of kilometres, many of them in cities.
“China will continue to be the leader in sales, with approximately twice as many electric vans and trucks sold compared to Europe,” anticipates Colin McKerracher, Bloomberg NEF analyst and author of the study.
“Another market to watch is South Korea, where electric light commercial vehicle sales were close to 25% of the market, even after the expiration of generous purchase subsidies,” he expands.
Finally, McKerracher warns that the biggest surprise could occur in the United States, since it is an almost testimonial market that has begun to show signs of very rapid growth through large orders for this type of vehicle by operators in the automotive sector. transport.
We end with one of the keys to the expansion of the electric vehicle: public charging points.
Globally, in 2022 public charging installations more than doubled to almost 1 million in 2022. That is, more than 50% compared to 450,000 the previous year.
The indicators lead BNEF to believe that annual installations will reach 1.3 million in 2023 and that the accumulated network will reach 4.1 million. This means that the upward trend will continue, but that it will continue to do so at a clearly insufficient rate.
“The fate of global growth largely depends on the Chinese industry, which has been installing a large number of chargers,” BNEF notes. “Europe and North America are much further behind, but they will also post record years for public facilities.”
Will these three forecasts come true or will the world surprise us again with unexpected situations that upset all the planned plans?